Bush: 264 and Kerry: 269 before New Mexico's 5 votes.

Bush: 269 and Kerry: 269 after New Mexico's 5 votes.

A tie would take it to the House of Representatives and Republicans outnumber Democrats, so Bush will win. This is what I hope happens, but most likely Bush will win taking Iowa, Ohio and Florida (unlike my predictions) giving Bush a total of 296 electoral votes and 52% of the Popular Vote.
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